A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
